September
13, 2018, University of Oxford
September
is the peak of autumn bird migration, and billions of birds are winging their
way south in dramatic pulses. A new study published in the
journal Science reports that scientists can now reliably predict
these waves of bird migration up to seven days in advance. The study details
the underlying methods that power migration forecasts, which can be used as a
bird conservation tool.
"Most
of our songbirds migrate at night, and they pay close attention to the weather,"
says study lead author Benjamin Van Doren, a Ph.D. student at the University of
Oxford and a Cornell University graduate. "Our model converts weather
forecasts into bird migration forecasts
for the continental United States."
In this
study, the researchers quantified 23 years of spring bird migration across the
United States using 143 weather radars, highly sensitive sensors that
scientists can use to monitor bird movements. They filtered out precipitation
and trained a machine learning model to associate atmospheric conditions with
levels of bird migration countrywide. Eighty percent of variation in bird
migration intensity was explained by the model.
"The
capacity to forecast where and
when birds are
likely to be flying is instrumental for conservation goals," says
co-author Kyle Horton, a Rose Postdoctoral Fellow at the Cornell Lab.
Migration
forecasts make it possible to reduce human-made threats to migratory birds
during a journey that is already fraught with danger. In addition to the
energy-depleting journey itself, birds may be thrown off schedule when they
become disoriented by city lights. They may crash into tall buildings, cell
towers, or power lines. Loss of habitat along their route could mean they don't
have the energy to complete the trip on time or may arrive on their breeding
grounds in poor condition, making them unable to breed at all.
No comments:
Post a Comment