Date: March 5, 2019
Source: Cornell University
Using
data on 77 North American migratory bird species from the eBird citizen-science
program, scientists at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology say that, in as little as
four decades, it may be very difficult to predict how climate change will
affect migratory bird populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. Their
conclusions are presented in a paper published in the journal Ecography.
"Climates
have natural variation and we're moving rapidly into territory where the magnitude
of climate change will consistently exceed this variation," says lead
author and Cornell Lab researcher Frank La Sorte. "There will be no
historic precedent for these new climates, and migratory bird populations will
increasingly encounter 'novel' climatic conditions. The most likely outcome
will be a period of ecological disruption as migratory birds and other species
try to respond or adapt to these new conditions."
Cornell
Lab scientists generated new climate models incorporating multiple sources of
data. This produced a timeline indicating when and where migratory bird
populations are likely to be significantly affected by novel climates during
each phase of their annual life cycles. It's not that far off:
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