Emperor penguins are known for
braving the harsh Antarctic winters, but they might not be able to brave the
harsh realities of climate change. That’s the finding of a new study, which
suggests that by the end of this century, the world’s largest penguins may be
no more. Previous research suggested that rapidly warming air and sea
temperatures—which melt sea ice—might cause their numbers to plummet
by as much as 19% by 2100. But a new model looks at other factors,
including how individual penguins deal with climate change by migrating to
places with optimal sea ice coverage. In their model of potential penguin
migrations, researchers looked at how far penguins typically go and what factors
figure in their decisions. They used data previously collected from Pointe
Géologie in Antarctica along with satellite images of penguin colonies that
revealed information about their traveling and foraging behavior. The model
projects that for the next 2 decades, populations will remain stable, and may
even increase slightly as the penguins move to locations that are more
habitable. After 2050, it all goes downhill. Although the rate of population
decline may vary, by the
year 2100 almost all emperor penguins may be gone, the
researchers write in an upcoming issue of Biological Conservation. That’s
because climate change will have rendered all their habitats inhospitable by
then. Gaining endangered status under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, the
scientists say, may be one way of arresting what might otherwise be their final
march.
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